Friday, March 26, 2004

The next crash is silently upon us: "You can analyze the domestic economy, interest rates and markets all you want -- it won't matter. Why? Because the reasons are external. Remember, shortly after 9/11 both Donald Rumsfeld and Warren Buffett publicly said that the question is not if we are going to have more attacks on U.S. soil, but when. That may not be news, but it is clear Americans are in denial about this truth, and that denial, unfortunately, will set you up for failure in your personal finance. As a result of the Afghan and Iraq wars the global political landscape has become more destabilized than before. The Israeli roadmap for peace has collapsed. The Pakistani offensive against al-Qaida now looks like a farce. And the post-Madrid television warnings from bin Ladin's mastermind al-Zawahiri that 'death brigades' are 90 percent in place to carry out new terrorists' attacks inside America's borders have an ominous promissory ring to them, as did the warnings of the blind cleric during his trial after the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center."

"Madrid taught the terrorists that they can influence elections. The likely timing will coincide with a significant political event this year: The Fourth of July, a political convention, the 9/11 anniversary or the November presidential election."

"This forecast was already well formed although unarticulated when I read in Barron's: 'We are coming into one of the worse bear market in history.' The prediction was made by Richard Russell, the highly respected publisher of the Dow Theory Letters. He has a solid track record predicting market turns since he launched his newsletter in 1958.

His dark omen reminds me of similar warnings from super-bears like Robert Prechter, the long-time publisher of the Elliot Wave Theorist. Prechter has also been sounding the alarm in recent months, reinforcing Russell predictions.

Prechter's solutions are drastic. In an earlier newsletter he offered many radical 'Bear Market Strategies:' Get out of stocks and funds and park all your money in Treasuries and money markets. Cash out insurance policies and stop looking at your home as an investment because that market's bubble will burst."

So bond ladders are looking more interesting than ever.

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